France’s push for strategic autonomy crumbles under Trump’s booze tariffs

PARIS — Strategic autonomy is all well and good. But what happens when your adversaries go after the bubbly?

French President Emmanuel Macron’s push for a stronger, more united Europe better equipped to deter Russia’s war machine and retaliate to trade threats from the United States and China is facing a major test as Beijing and Washington target France’s famous alcohol products.

China has for months been mulling duties on European brandies, including cognac, a move widely seen as retaliation for Paris’ vehement support for EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

U.S. President Donald Trump upped the ante last week by threatening 200 percent tariffs on European alcohol. Such a move would disproportionally affect winemaking countries including France, which exported €15.4 billion worth of wine and spirits last year, according to the Federation of French Wine and Spirits Exporters (FEVS), most of which went to the United States.

France is the EU’s top exporter of wine and spirits, and the sector is particular influential in French politics and society.

With one of its most valuable exports now in the White House’s crosshairs, French leaders appear to be getting cold feet on the whole unity thing. Prime Minster François Bayrou and his government are instead publicly urging Brussels to spare Kentucky bourbon from any possible European response.

After Trump imposed global steel and aluminum tariffs last week, the European Union threatened to retaliate by hitting a list of iconic American exports in return — including Kentucky bourbon. Bayrou said over the weekend putting bourbon on the list was a mistake and France is now pushing to reconsider what is on its retaliatory list.

“We asked them [the European Commission] 50 times not to hit bourbon,” said a French minister who was granted anonymity to speak freely about sensitive negotiations.

Sign of weakness

Jean-Luc Demarty, who was in charge of drafting the European Commission’s tariff retaliation list in 2018, during Trump’s first term, said it was “a mistake” to publicly try to dial back on Brussels’ strategy, as it will be seen in Washington as “a sign of weakness.”

“Knowing Trump, there is no chance that he will backtrack, he is going to massacre us,” Demarty said.

While comments like Bayrou’s might reassure French winemakers, it also shows how Trump’s efforts to divide EU countries are already yielding results.

“The French comments on bourbon suggest that its previous approach — favoring a more aggressive and united EU trade policy — is now crumbling under the pressure of the playground bully targeting French wine and spirits exports to the U.S.,” said John Clarke, until recently the EU’s top agricultural trade negotiator.

France has previously been unafraid to play the role of EU trade policy bad cop, vocally defending the bloc’s tariffs in the face of criticism from its more pro-free trade partners like Germany.

But the Bayrou government is under pressure from the country’s wine and spirits sector, which is heavily reliant on exports and has already been a collateral victim of previous trade disputes with Trump.

“Stop making French wines and spirits the collateral victims of disputes with the United States,” the FEVS said in a statement.

But as France tries to shield its alcohol sector from the transatlantic trade war, it risks encouraging countries to do what they can to protect their own valuable exports.

And this might just a bitter foretaste of how EU countries will react on April 2, when Trump will announce a new round of wide-ranging so-called “reciprocal tariffs.”  If those measures target German cars, as he has threatened, it would deal a huge blow to an industry that powers Europe’s largest economy but is already facing headwinds.

“We haven’t seen anything yet,” said Demarty. “On April 2, we are going to see hell.”