Inside Meloni’s plan to sweet-talk Trump on tariffs

ROME — Giorgia Meloni finally has the chance to demonstrate that befriending the volatile occupant of the White House was worth the effort. 

As she flies to Washington this week, the Italian prime minister will try to convince U.S. President Donald Trump not to impose new tariffs that would deliver a severe economic blow to Europe — and a potentially lethal one to Italian exporters.

Meloni’s personal engagement with Trump has set nerves jangling in other EU capitals. But as the bloc faces up to a potentially ruinous trade war, even her wariest counterparts are coming round to the idea that she may be the only European leader he is willing to listen to.

The right-wing politician’s stock is high with the American president, who praised her after his reelection last year as “a fantastic leader and person” before inviting her to his inauguration in January.

Now, the European Union has three months to convince Trump not to slap 20 percent duties on all its exports to the United States after he paused the punitive “reciprocal” tariffs he unveiled on April 2. The EU is still subject to Trump’s baseline tariff of 10 percent, plus 25 percent levies on steel, aluminum and autos.

Previous attempts by other European leaders to sway the president — through flattery, threats or promises to buy more American gas — have gone nowhere.

Meloni’s visit on Thursday is an opportunity to demonstrate that the Europeans can still do business with Trump — so long as they muster the appropriate levels of obsequiousness.

Just a day after meeting with Trump, the Italian leader will fly back to Rome to host Vice President JD Vance for a state visit. Vance, on his last visit to Europe in January, launched a broadside against the bloc, accusing its leaders of failing to uphold free speech or to halt illegal migration.

“Having Trump’s ear is an asset for the entire European Union,” said one Italian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, highlighting Meloni’s “ideological affinities with the world of American conservative right-wing politics.”

In part, Meloni’s actions reflect Italy’s terror at the prospect of losing its historically close ties to the U.S., which it sees as insurance against the Franco-German axis that dominates EU affairs. Unlike other European leaders, she believes that Trump can still be reasoned with and that his trade threats are little more than a brash negotiating tactic, according to two Italian officials familiar with the government’s foreign policy stance. 

Meloni also wants to show that she can obtain concessions from Trump and that “if we are less hysterical, we can work with Washington,” said one of the officials, acknowledging that her credibility in Brussels is on the line if she fails. 

At nearly €40 billion, Italy’s trade surplus with the U.S. is the third-largest among EU countries — behind Germany and Ireland. Its top exports are machinery, pharmaceuticals, vehicles, fashion, and food and beverages. It’s no surprise that Meloni is under pressure from Italian exporters to spare them from Trump’s tariffs.

Flying solo

Some European leaders, notably French President Emmanuel Macron, warn that Trump’s goal is to divide EU countries and push them to negotiate bilateral deals with the U.S. administration.

For them, Meloni’s trip looks especially suspect, coming after she frustrated European allies with her quiet pushback against bloc-wide plans to rearm as Trump began to withdraw support for Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s 3-year-old war of aggression. 

French Industry Minister Marc Ferracci reacted allergically last week to news that Meloni was heading to Washington, saying Europe needed to stay united. But Paris seems to have since calmed down and has stopped publicly criticizing her mission. And Meloni has already touched base with Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, to discuss the trip, said Commission spokesperson Arianna Podestà.

With the Commission’s direct engagement failing to head off Trump’s trade war, Brussels and other EU countries now appear to be going along with Meloni’s gambit. 

They don’t seem particularly worried that Meloni might try to negotiate a side deal that would only benefit Italy — a breach of solidarity that would raise a huge question mark over Italy’s future in the EU single market. That’s because it’s an option that Trump himself has ruled out.

“It is only natural for member states to have bilateral interests that they wish to promote and no one would stop her from doing so,” said an EU diplomat from another country. “But when it comes to tariffs that apply to all of us, we trust that she will stick to the agreed EU approach.”

German politicians close to the likely next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, are also optimistic. 

“Meloni’s trip to Washington right now is an important signal,” said Johann Wadephul, from Merz’s Christian Democrats. “The Italian prime minister has a good connection to U.S. President Trump, which she can now put to the service of Europe.”

Going soft? 

That’s not to say Italy’s approach is without controversy. For months, Meloni’s government has been calling on the EU to adopt a softer approach toward Trump and his tariffs.

Just days after Trump was sworn in, and even before he launched his trade war, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani proposed appeasing Trump by offering to buy more American goods. Tajani, whose remit also covers trade, was among the first to urge Brussels to delay retaliation against the 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum that Trump imposed on March 12. 

While hopes are slim that Meloni can return with a deal, the Commission and some European countries may value her as a scout “to feel the ground and lay the basis for future negotiations,” said Alberto Rizzi, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič traveled to Washington on Monday to pitch Brussels’ offer to cut industrial tariffs to zero on both sides of the Atlantic. But Meloni’s allies are confident she can achieve more than the bloc’s chief trade negotiator, whose job it is to do deals on behalf of the union’s 27 member countries. 

“Politics, like life, is built on personal relationships,” said Marco Scurria, an Italian senator from Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party. “It’s better when such a complex negotiation is handled by two people who respect each other and can more easily reach a positive outcome — unlike with von der Leyen.”

Giorgio Leali reported from Paris, Ben Munster from Rome and Elena Giordano and Giovanna Coi from Brussels. Julius Brinkmann contributed reporting from Berlin.